We’ve highlighted every other NFL game this weekend, and now we’ll wrap with Sunday’s NFC game between the Rams and Buccaneers.
Tampa is currently 2.5-point favorites at home, with an over/under set at 48.5 points. The game will kick off at 3 p.m. EST on Sunday and is a rematch of a Week 3 game that Los Angeles won 34-24.
Rams vs. Buccaneers: Thoughts on the spread
If you’re considering a bet on the spread, you have to monitor the status of Tampa Bay’s Pro Bowl right tackle Tristan Wirfs.
Wirfs left last week’s game early, and his backup, Josh Wells, was taken advantage of from that moment on.
The key to beating Tom Brady in the playoffs has always been a pass rush, and few teams have a stronger unit than the Rams.
PFF has the Rams graded out as the top pass-rushing defense, and their 50 sacks on the year rank third in the NFL.
If Wirfs can’t go, I’ll either bet on Rams +2.5 or to win outright at +125 on FanDuel.
Beyond the spread, I do see a few prop angles worth consideration, starting with Los Angeles.
Cooper Kupp over 27.5 long reception (-115 on DraftKings)
More than anything, this is a bet on a season-long trend. If you’ve never bet a long reception prop before, I highly recommend it.
Not only have these bets been reasonably profitable, but they are thrilling to root for! We need just one catch of 28 yards or longer for Kupp to cash this bet. The delay in seeing your guy get a big catch and the announcer saying how long it was can be a lot of fun.
Back to actual numbers: Kupp has been dominant this season — you know that. He has hit this mark in 78% of games this season, including six of his last seven.
He is Matthew Stafford’s preferred target and consistently gets open down the field.
Last week, I watched Jalen Hurts miss multiple wide-open deep bombs to receivers. This Tampa secondary has leaks and is battling some injuries. In a game I expect plenty of passing and back-and-forth scoring, I’ll gladly follow a 78% hit rate.