Premier League Predictions Wins for Liverpool, Brighton, Chelsea but Man City to slip at Crystal Palace
Match highlights of every Premier League game to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app just after full-time; watch Crystal Palace vs Manchester City, Fulham vs Arsenal and Newcastle vs Wolves live on Sky Sports
Jones Knows sees problems for Tottenham and Manchester City this weekend as he unleashes his betting analysis on the 10 Premier League fixtures.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool, Saturday 12.30pm
You know when Liverpool are in a confident mood, as their ability to catch players offside spikes.
There is logic to it as the higher the team press, which is affected by confidence, the more Jurgen Klopp’s side can pin a team in and create good quality chances. In the three seasons they amassed more than 91 points, they topped the charts for offsides against, averaging around 3.5 per match.
That average dropped to 2.50 per match when they picked up just 69 points in the disappointing 2020/21 season and has dropped to just 2.4 per match this season as Klopp’s men sit off the pace
However, there is a fair argument to declare that Liverpool have turned the corner and consistent positive results and performances are on the horizon for the remainder of this season. That is seen through their rocketing offside against numbers.
Every opposition in the Premier League in their last five fixtures have been caught offside at least three times with Wolves and Palace racking up four offsides. Bournemouth showed at Arsenal that their counter-attacking can be direct and full of pace in behind so I’d expect them to be posting a similar average akin to the last five Liverpool games. That makes the 11/10 with Sky Bet for two or more Bournemouth offsides and 11/4 for three or more look very generous.
Everton vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
Despite the 16 points difference between these two in the Premier League table, the market has this as an even game. That may sway some to seeing the 7/4 with Sky Bet for a Brentford win looking particularly attractive but Everton are much more than relegation fodder under Sean Dyche. They were superb at Nottingham Forest last weekend, posing a threat going forward and offering little for Forest to work with. It was just unfortunate they bumped into a red-hot Brennan Johnson.
Those looking for a betting angle should be alerted to Brentford’s desire to defend deep without the ball which does leave them exposed to facing shots on their goal from outside the box. They have conceded 54 shots on target from outside the box season – the most shopped by any Premier League team. This brings Dwight McNeil to have one or more shots on target from outside the box at 5/1 with Sky Bet into consideration.
The winger played with a freedom at Nottingham Forest in a fluid forward line that saw him interchange with Demarai Gray. He struck the target from range in that 2-2 draw and will be afforded space by the Brentford backline to repeat the feat.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Leeds vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm
Brighton are being priced up by the market like a genuine top-four contender with odds-on quotes being chalked up and undoubtedly backed for them to record an away win at Elland Road. It’s hard to back against them in such rampant and confident mood.
Alexis Mac Allister has been thrust into a greater attacking role in recent weeks, playing off Evan Ferguson who likes to drop deep and provide teammates with service. The World Cup winner has posted 14 shots in his last three Premier League starts to a backdrop of a whopping 3.10 expected goals, including his penalty against West Ham last weekend. The markets haven’t adjusted to this goal threat, so the 15/2 with Sky Bet on him netting the first goal rates as a savvy value play.
Leicester vs Chelsea, Saturday 3pm
A theory around calling Chelsea’s result right revolves around the availability and form of Ben Chilwell and Reece James.
In 21 games since the start of last season when both have started as wing-backs, Chelsea have won 15 of those games with the two key wide men racking up 12 goal involvements (goal or assist) in those matches from the 38 goals scored, including Chilwell’s assist in the win over Dortmund in midweek.
Chilwell’s prices to make a significant mark in this match against his former club do stand out. He’s had four shots in his last two starts, missing two good chances in both matches as he’s been given lots of licence down the left. That makes the 33/1 with Sky Bet on him scoring first very appealing and for those that like attacking shorter prices, the 15/8 on him registering two shots – like he has done in his last two starts – makes plenty of appeal.
Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm
Antonio Conte looked a shell of his best self as Spurs crashed out of the Champions League on Wednesday. So did his team.
Conte, remember, is still dealing with losing two of his closest friends and recovering from his own health issues, as he returns to the day-to-day running of Spurs.
With the club lacking any long-term plan, doubts surrounding the futures of Conte and Harry Kane and a rightly frustrated fan-base, this could be the perfect time for Nottingham Forest to head to north London. Spurs are the only team in the Premier League not to draw a home game this season, in fact it’s been 23 games since the last league draw at home. One could be dropping here with almost 4/1 on offer from Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Such is Crystal Palace’s current malaise of being nine games without a win added to Manchester City being Manchester City, the market is dominated by Pep Guardiola’s side who are 1/3 with Sky Bet for victory.
However, when Palace play under the lights at Selhurst Park, my tendency is to get them on my side – the great old ground can rock like no other can and genuinely can make a huge difference. Since Patrick Vieira took charge, Palace have played 13 fixtures at home in games kicking off at 5.30pm or later and they have lost just three times, including avoiding defeat to Manchester City last season in a 0-0 draw. Newcastle, Liverpool and Manchester United also all failed to beat Palace under those conditions this season so the market may have failed to give Palace the respect they probably deserve at home. The 9/4 for them to avoid defeat is a tempter
Backing the draw and under 2.5 goals at 5/1 with Sky Bet should provide you with a better run for your money than the odds suggest.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Fulham vs Arsenal, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
This fixture has fallen at the perfect time for Arsenal and I’m expecting them to dispatch Fulham without too much fuss.
Joao Palhinha is missing with suspension again for the hosts and his influence was sorely missed at Brentford last Monday whilst Aleksandar Mitrovic didn’t look overly interested in that encounter. It was a performance more in keeping with Fulham’s underlying numbers this season that have pointed to a huge overachievement in terms of their results.
Fulham’s expected goals against record remains the worst in the Premier League (44.2), pointing towards high-quality chances being offered up. You can’t be that generous to teams towards the top of the Premier League as perhaps it explains why Fulham have taken just one point from eight games against teams in the top six this season.